A leaked draft UNFCC document dated 15th December shows that current committments of emissions reductions "remain on an unsustainable pathway that could lead to concentrations equal or above 550ppm with the related temperature raise around 3 degrees C.".

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The document was first reported on by by the MediaPart French press outlet as well as the tv/radio show Democracy Now.

The document (PDF) can be downloaded from 350.org and other sites

While the fact that commitments have not matched the scientific targets is well known, the acknowledgement from the United Nations signifies that the conference secretariat is well aware that, even by its own accounting, the deal likely to be signed tomorrow will not accomplish the stated goal of even the most powerful negotiating countries (hold to 2 degree rise), let alone the goals of the most impacted countries (well below 1.5 degree rise).

So this is the result of two years of negotiation since Bali? What have our negotiators been up to all this time?

For an MIT software model of where current commitments will take us see the Climate Interactive Scoreboard. This model says with existing pledges we are more likely to result in a temp increase of 3.9 C, not a mere 3 C.

Concerned? You can communicate directly to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Climate Minister Penny Wong in Copenhagen through Fax or email via the Getup! Campaign page Kevin's Chance to Lead. Tell our leaders to put forward their most ambitious targets and real financial support for developing countries by sending your urgent fax straight to Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong in Denmark.

Don't leave it to tomorrow, do it now.